David's Tip of the Week - 6.21.07

Sorry Gary, but I'm going to save the key ball tip for a later date.

Today's Tip concerns percentage play. Good pool is about knowing the percentages, as well as executing properly. Percentages are often dependent upon the shooter. For instance, I may have a table length draw for position which I might determine to have a 90% chance of success. Someone uncomfortable with draw may rate the shot at 10% chance of success. In my case, I'd probably take on the shot. In the case of someone who doesn't feel comfortable, that person should look for another shot.

Here's an example of a shot I saw someone faced with in a 9-ball rack not too long ago. The shooter had ball-in-hand. The shooter decided to play the 5 in the corner by setting up a straight-in shot and drawing the CB back to play the 6 in the side. Page 2 in the diagram is what he had in mind. There are multiple reasons why he chose the wrong shot. First, he put a ball into play that never should have been in play, namely, the 9-ball. Second, he played a shot to cross the line (see last week's Tip) - if he gets on the wrong side of the 6, shape to the 7 is not so trivial. The 9-ball is a "big ball" - anywhere in the shaded area in page 3 of the diagram is a bad place to be. The shooter happened to get into the shaded area, and instead of having an easy out, ran one-and-done and gave up ball-in-hand.

Where percentage play comes into play is that if the shooter in this case had simply played a stop shot, he would've had a 100% chance of being able to shoot the 6 in the bottom right corner or the side. Instead, he felt confident enough in his draw stroke to get past the 9 and still be on the right side of the 6. His position zone for such a shot would've been very, very small, which reduces the percentages greatly. Confidence aside, if I have to choose an option where I cannot make a mistake vs. an option where a mistake can occur, I'm choosing the former.

Learn to determine your personal percentages and play accordingly. If a percentage is outside of your comfort zone, don't shoot it, look for another shot. When you learn to determine your percentages and execute accordingly, you'll see your run-out percentages increase.

Feel free to post your ideas, comments, and questions about the "Tip of the Week." If you're interested in lessons, please visit http://www.raleighbilliardacademy.com or talk to Steve Lee, Shirley Lee, or me.

-David J. Baranski
doomcue@nc.rr.com